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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 30?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 30?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$22K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?

March

Full event →
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?
75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 30?
67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2
51%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?
44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?
23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 30?
14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5?
7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5?
4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 30?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5?
2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 30?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on March 30?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 30?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on March 30?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?
0%

22 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.4%
½ Kelly1.2%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 30?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786341

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.