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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 1?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 1?

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$30K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 1?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $30K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813914

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?: 29%, Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?: 9%, Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 1?: 2%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~57%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

0% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%
½ Kelly8.3%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this