ForecastMind
Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?
Share on X

Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES
91%NO

Volume 24h

$22K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

8% / 9%

Spread

1.40pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813913

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?: 29%, Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?: 9%, Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 1?: 2%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~57%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: +5.4pp

5% → 10%

Apr 1, 2026

Peak probability

10% YES — highest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Current

9% YES (-1.8pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 9%99%
Buy YES@ 9¢
Edge

+2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this