Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?
Closes April 2, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
8% / 9%
Spread
1.40pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813913
This event has 7 active outcome markets. Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1?: 29%, Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 1?: 9%, Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 1?: 2%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~57%.
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Apr 1, 2026
Biggest move: +5.4pp
5% → 10%
Apr 1, 2026
Peak probability
10% YES — highest in period
Apr 1, 2026
Current
9% YES (-1.8pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this