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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 21?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 21?

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

43%YES
57%NO

Volume 24h

$38K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

40% / 46%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-22.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

66% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Trough probability

22% YES — lowest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

37%

Mar 21, 2026

Biggest move: +33.0pp

28% → 61%

Mar 21, 2026

Current

43% YES (+16.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 43%99%
Buy YES@ 43¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 57¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 21?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 21?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1668602