Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 21?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$38K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
40% / 46%
Spread
6.00pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?
March
20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
66% YES
Mar 21, 2026
Trough probability
22% YES — lowest in period
Mar 21, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
37%
Mar 21, 2026
Biggest move: +33.0pp
28% → 61%
Mar 21, 2026
Current
43% YES (+16.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 21?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 21?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1668602
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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