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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 21?

Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 21?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 01:01 AM UTC

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$42K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

24% / 28%

Spread

3.70pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 21?

100%

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 22?

above $66,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 23?

above $66,000 on March 23?

above $68,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

above $70,000 on March 23?

above $70,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 21?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

$80,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 23?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

$85,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 23?

above $72,000 on March 22?

above $76,000 on March 23?

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?

$72,000 on March 21?

$90,000 in March?

less than $62,000 on March 22?

$95,000 in March?

$100,000 in March?

$105,000 in March?

$73,000 on March 21?

$150,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?

$110,000 in March?

$74,000 on March 21?

above $74,000 on March 22?

above $84,000 on March 23?

above $82,000 on March 23?

$75,000 on March 21?

above $76,000 on March 22?

above $78,000 on March 22?

$86,000 March 16-22?

above $80,000 on March 22?

$76,000 on March 21?

above $82,000 on March 22?

$77,000 on March 21?

43 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

+49.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

4%

Mar 21, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

100%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: +95.9pp

4% → 100%

Mar 22, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

Edge

+6.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 21?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $42K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 3.70 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 21?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1668604

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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Event Cluster

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