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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 23?
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Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 23?

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES
81%NO

Volume 24h

$42K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

29% / 32%

Spread

3.10pp

Expert Signal

30%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will XRP reach $3.20 in March?

March

Full event →
$72,000 on March 23?
68%
$100 in March?
37%
$73,000 on March 23?
31%
$80,000 in March?
16%
$74,000 on March 23?
13%
$110 in March?
12%
$150,000 by December 31, 2026?
10%
$1.80 in March?
5%
$75,000 on March 23?
5%
$85,000 in March?
4%
$76,000 on March 23?
3%
$120 in March?
3%
$2.00 in March?
2%
$90,000 in March?
1%
$130 in March?
1%
$2.20 in March?
1%
$95,000 in March?
0%
$140 in March?
0%
$2.40 in March?
0%
$2.60 in March?
0%
$3.00 in March?
0%
$2.80 in March?
0%
$100,000 in March?
0%
$3.20 in March?
0%
$150 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$160 in March?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%

29 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+39.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: +19.1pp

22% → 41%

Mar 23, 2026

Current

41% YES (+19.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 19%99%
Buy YES@ 19¢
Edge

+1.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 81¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 23?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $42K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 3.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1688331

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