ForecastMind
Markets/Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?
Share on X

Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

49%YES
52%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$86K

Bid / Ask

48% / 49%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

49%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823800

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?: 88%, Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?: 49%, Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?: 22%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-9.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

59% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Trough probability

48% YES — lowest in period

Apr 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Apr 2, 2026

Biggest move: -6.5pp

55% → 48%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

49% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 49%99%
Buy YES@ 49¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 52¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this