ForecastMind
Markets/Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?
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Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$35K

Liquidity

$103K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

1.10pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $35K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1823794

Outcome Markets9 markets

This event has 9 active outcome markets. Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?: 71%, Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?: 20%, Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?: 9%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-18.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

23% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Apr 2, 2026

Biggest move: -19.0pp

23% → 4%

Apr 2, 2026

Current

5% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢

-8.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly8.0%
½ Kelly4.0%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 8.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this