Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Closes October 4, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.8pp below current market price; market at 7% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.0% ↓, S&P +1.2% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
7% / 7%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601924
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's preside: 88%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil': 80%, Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presiden: 7%.
Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runof
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
8% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
7% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Apr 15, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this