Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Closes November 7, 2028
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$34K
Liquidity
$295K
Bid / Ask
18% / 18%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2028
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
18% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Current
18% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $34K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561230
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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