Markets/Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Market Price

14%YES

86%NO

FM Estimate

11%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.9pp

Vol 24h$116

Liquidity$15K

Bid / Ask13% / 15%

Spread1.80pp

ClosesAug 4, 2026

Macro fundamentals-5.5pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Abdul El-Sayed

Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Prim

50%

Mallory McMorrow

Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Pr

35%

Haley Stevens

Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Prima

14%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

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PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $116 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80pp. The market closes on August 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/599304