Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
Closes April 30, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$45K
Bid / Ask
3% / 4%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential…
2027
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Mar 5, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-13.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679044
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.