Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
0.60pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1693052
This event has 11 active outcome markets. December 31: 71%, June 30: 46%, May 31: 34%.
Jordan strike Iran by April 30?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 4, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.3pp recent)
Apr 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-7.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this