Markets/Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$246K

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

2027

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+1.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 17, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.8pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%

½ Kelly4.5%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $246K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485219