Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
93% / 94%
Spread
0.90pp
Expert Signal
93%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Félix Oros win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra…
2026
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
88% YES
Mar 13, 2026
Biggest move: +5.0pp
89% → 94%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
95% YES — highest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Current
93% YES (-0.7pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
+6.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?" at 93% YES / 7% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 93%, NO 7%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1122960
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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