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Markets/Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
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Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

4%YES
96%NO
Vol 24h$21K
Liquidity$21K
Bid / Ask4% / 4%
Spread0.20pp
ClosesOct 4, 2026

FM Estimate

2%

Market Price

4%
↑ Overpriced 1.9pp
Macro fundamentals-3.0pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil': 79%, Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presiden: 17%, Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's pres: 5%.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presiden
79%
Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runof
17%
Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential r
5%

Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential ru

4%
Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff
3%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.1pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601925