Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
ForecastMind estimates 78% — market may be overpriced by 3pp vs our model · Macro fundamentals: -5.2pp
Market Price
FM Estimate
medium confidence · 2 signals
Wikipedia Attention
This event has 12 active outcome markets. Scottish National Party: 98%, Plaid Cymru: 79%, Parti Québécois: 50%.
Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd
Price History · 30 days
Export CSVPrice History
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?" at 79% YES / 21% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 81%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00pp. The market closes on May 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 79%, NO 21%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/922347