Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
ForecastMind estimates 14% — market may be overpriced by 4pp vs our model · Macro fundamentals: -3.5pp
Market Price
FM Estimate
low confidence · 1 signals
Wikipedia Attention
This event has 12 active outcome markets. Scottish National Party: 98%, Plaid Cymru: 81%, Parti Québécois: 50%.
Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd e
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 2.80pp. The market closes on May 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/922349