Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
Market Price
FM Estimate
low confidence · 2 signals
Wikipedia Attention
This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 80%, December 31, 2026: 60%, May 31: 16%.
Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1397301