Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$76K
Liquidity
$98K
Bid / Ask
0% / 0%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
1%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Feb 27, 2026
Current
0% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $76K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/646002
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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