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Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

5%YES
95%NO
Vol 24h$5K
Liquidity$23K
Bid / Ask3% / 4%
Spread0.70pp
ClosesOct 4, 2026

FM Estimate

2%

Market Price

4%
↑ Overpriced 1.6pp
Macro fundamentals-3.3pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's preside: 88%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil': 80%, Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presiden: 7%.

Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runo
88%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presiden
80%
Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runof
7%

Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential r

5%
Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff
3%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-1.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601921