Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$23K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
14% / 16%
Spread
2.30pp
Expert Signal
15%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 2.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1723674
This event has 9 active outcome markets. DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?: 46%, DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?: 15%, DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026?: 11%.
DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
58% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Trough probability
3% YES — lowest in period
Apr 2, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
35%
Mar 30, 2026
Biggest move: -22.1pp
57% → 35%
Mar 30, 2026
Current
18% YES (-1.0pp recent)
Apr 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this