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Markets/Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Closes June 17, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES
92%NO

Volume 24h

$21K

Liquidity

$129K

Bid / Ask

10% / 12%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.6pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April…

April 2026

Full event →
no change in Fed interest rates after the Apr
93%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun
84%
no change in Fed interest rates after the Jul
77%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25
63%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates a
35%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
9%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp
6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ b
5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp
1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after
1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ b
0%

18 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-19.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

29% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -20.5pp

29% → 9%

Mar 18, 2026

Current

10% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 9%99%
Buy YES@ 9¢
Edge

+5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 92¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 17, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/906973

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Venue Divergence

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