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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

99%YES
2%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

98% / 99%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.5pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 1?

April

Full event →
above $60,000 on April 1?
99%
above $62,000 on April 1?
97%
above $64,000 on April 1?
87%
above $68,000 on April 1?
30%
above $70,000 on April 1?
10%
above $72,000 on April 1?
3%
above $74,000 on April 1?
1%
above $76,000 on April 1?
1%
above $78,000 on April 1?
0%
above $80,000 on April 1?
0%

10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

99% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

99% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 99%99%
Buy YES@ 99¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly33.3%
½ Kelly16.7%
Buy NO@ 2¢

-33.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 33.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1?" at 99% YES / 1% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 99%, NO 1%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717477

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.