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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:22 PM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

98%YES

2%NO

Volume 24h

$30K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

98% / 98%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.5pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23?

March

above $70,000 on March 23?

above $64,000 on March 23?

above $66,000 on March 23?

above $68,000 on March 23?

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23?

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 23?

above $64,000 on March 24?

above $62,000 on March 25?

above $66,000 on March 24?

above $64,000 on March 25?

98%

above $66,000 on March 25?

above $68,000 on March 24?

above $68,000 on March 25?

above $70,000 on March 24?

above $70,000 on March 25?

above $72,000 on March 25?

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 24?

above $72,000 on March 24?

above $74,000 on March 25?

above $74,000 on March 24?

above $76,000 on March 25?

above $76,000 on March 24?

above $78,000 on March 25?

less than $64,000 on March 24?

above $78,000 on March 24?

above $80,000 on March 24?

above $80,000 on March 25?

above $74,000 on March 23?

above $72,000 on March 23?

above $76,000 on March 23?

above $78,000 on March 23?

less than $64,000 on March 23?

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 23?

above $84,000 on March 24?

above $82,000 on March 24?

above $82,000 on March 25?

above $80,000 on March 23?

above $84,000 on March 23?

38 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-0.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

98% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Current

98% YES (-0.6pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 98%99%

Buy YES@ 98¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 2¢

Edge

+29.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO—+29.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $30K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1640438

Go Deeper

Entity Hub

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

Download 90d CSV

Full price history for your own analysis.