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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23?

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

87%YES
13%NO

Volume 24h

$40K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

96% / 96%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

Full event →
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 21?
100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 21?
100%
above $62,000 on March 22?
100%
above $64,000 on March 22?
99%
above $66,000 on March 22?
97%
above $64,000 on March 23?
97%
above $66,000 on March 23?
87%
above $68,000 on March 22?
76%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?
51%
above $70,000 on March 23?
34%
above $70,000 on March 22?
20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 21?
19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
16%
$80,000 in March?
12%
above $72,000 on March 23?
11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
6%
$85,000 in March?
3%
above $74,000 on March 23?
2%
above $72,000 on March 22?
2%
above $76,000 on March 23?
1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?
1%
$72,000 on March 21?
1%
$90,000 in March?
1%
less than $62,000 on March 22?
1%
$95,000 in March?
1%
$100,000 in March?
0%
$105,000 in March?
0%
$73,000 on March 21?
0%
$150,000 in March?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
0%
$110,000 in March?
0%
$74,000 on March 21?
0%
above $74,000 on March 22?
0%
above $84,000 on March 23?
0%
above $82,000 on March 23?
0%
$75,000 on March 21?
0%
above $76,000 on March 22?
0%
above $78,000 on March 22?
0%
$86,000 March 16-22?
0%
above $80,000 on March 22?
0%
$76,000 on March 21?
0%
above $82,000 on March 22?
0%
$77,000 on March 21?
0%

43 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-11.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

98% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Trough probability

83% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -14.2pp

97% → 83%

Mar 22, 2026

Current

87% YES (+3.7pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 87%99%
Buy YES@ 87¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.0%
½ Kelly1.5%
Buy NO@ 13¢

-3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23?" at 87% YES / 13% NO. In the last 24 hours, $40K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 87%, NO 13%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607675

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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Event Cluster

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