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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24?

Closes March 24, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

50%YES
51%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

48% / 49%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 23?

March

Full event →
above $64,000 on March 23?
97%
above $64,000 on March 24?
91%
above $66,000 on March 23?
85%
above $66,000 on March 24?
76%
above $68,000 on March 24?
50%
above $68,000 on March 23?
49%
above $70,000 on March 24?
23%
above $70,000 on March 23?
12%
above $72,000 on March 24?
8%
above $74,000 on March 24?
3%
between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 23?
1%
above $72,000 on March 23?
1%
above $76,000 on March 24?
1%
between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23?
0%
above $78,000 on March 24?
0%
above $80,000 on March 24?
0%
above $84,000 on March 24?
0%
above $82,000 on March 24?
0%
above $74,000 on March 23?
0%
above $78,000 on March 23?
0%
above $80,000 on March 23?
0%
above $76,000 on March 23?
0%
above $82,000 on March 23?
0%
above $84,000 on March 23?
0%

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Mar 23, 2026

Current

46% YES (-4.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 50%99%
Buy YES@ 50¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 51¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24?" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1628632

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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Event Cluster

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Full price history for your own analysis.