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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:22 PM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

65%YES

36%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

65% / 67%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

65%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23?

March

above $70,000 on March 23?

above $64,000 on March 23?

above $66,000 on March 23?

above $68,000 on March 23?

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23?

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 23?

above $64,000 on March 24?

above $62,000 on March 25?

above $64,000 on March 25?

above $66,000 on March 24?

above $66,000 on March 25?

above $68,000 on March 24?

above $68,000 on March 25?

above $70,000 on March 24?

above $70,000 on March 25?

65%

above $72,000 on March 25?

above $72,000 on March 24?

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 24?

above $74,000 on March 25?

above $74,000 on March 24?

above $76,000 on March 25?

above $76,000 on March 24?

above $78,000 on March 25?

less than $64,000 on March 24?

above $78,000 on March 24?

above $80,000 on March 25?

above $74,000 on March 23?

above $72,000 on March 23?

above $76,000 on March 23?

above $78,000 on March 23?

above $80,000 on March 24?

less than $64,000 on March 23?

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 23?

above $84,000 on March 24?

above $82,000 on March 24?

above $82,000 on March 25?

above $80,000 on March 23?

above $84,000 on March 23?

38 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

+12.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

55% YES

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: +8.0pp

52% → 60%

Mar 23, 2026

Current

67% YES (+7.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 65%99%

Buy YES@ 65¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO@ 36¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25?" at 65% YES / 35% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 65%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 65%, NO 35%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1640444

Go Deeper

Entity Hub

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

Download 90d CSV

Full price history for your own analysis.