Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 27?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 27?

Data as of Mar 26, 2026, 07:40 PM UTC

Closes March 27, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

$40K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

19% / 20%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

March

Full event →

above $60,000 on March 27?

100%

above $62,000 on March 27?

100%

above $64,000 on March 27?

98%

above $66,000 on March 27?

92%

above $68,000 on March 27?

59%

above $70,000 on March 27?

18%

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 27?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 23-29?

above $74,000 on March 27?

above $76,000 on March 27?

above $78,000 on March 27?

12 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-28.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 20, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

41%

Mar 22, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 23, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 24, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +30.0pp

36% → 66%

Mar 23, 2026

Peak probability

75% YES — highest in period

Mar 25, 2026

Current

19% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 18%99%

Buy YES@ 18¢

Edge

+2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 83¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 27?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $40K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 27?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1662881