Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26?

Data as of Mar 25, 2026, 06:09 AM UTC

Closes March 26, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES

90%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

10% / 12%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25?

March

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-11.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

21% YES

Mar 19, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 24, 2026

Biggest move: +17.0pp

7% → 24%

Mar 23, 2026

Peak probability

27% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

10% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

Buy YES@ 10¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 90¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1652077