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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 1?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 1?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$27K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

4% / 6%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 1?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717403

Outcome Markets9 markets

This event has 9 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,0: 47%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 40%, price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,0: 5%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~2%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Biggest move: -22.5pp

29% → 7%

Mar 31, 2026

Peak probability

32% YES — highest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Current

5% YES (-5.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this