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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 1?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 1?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES
92%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

8% / 9%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

8%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 1?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717411

Outcome Markets9 markets

This event has 9 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 50%, price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,0: 39%, price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 8%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-10.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: +8.0pp

7% → 15%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

7% YES (+3.4pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 8%99%
Buy YES@ 8¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%
½ Kelly2.4%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this