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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 31?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$32K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 31?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705520

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,0: 50%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 36%, price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,0: 10%.

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-9.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

15% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -7.0pp

17% → 10%

Mar 27, 2026

Current

6% YES (-0.8pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢

-5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.9%
½ Kelly2.9%
Buy NO+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this