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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 1?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 1?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

82%YES
19%NO

Volume 24h

$34K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

81% / 82%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

87%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+6.2pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 1?" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $34K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 87%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717412

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+11.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

73% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: +14.5pp

72% → 87%

Apr 1, 2026

Peak probability

87% YES — highest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Current

85% YES (+2.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 82%99%
Buy YES@ 82¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.7%
½ Kelly1.4%
Buy NO@ 19¢

-2.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this