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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13?

Closes April 13, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
40%FIS
6ppvs market 46%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -6.2pp below current market price; market at 46% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -2.7% ↓, ETH -4.1% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -2.7% ↓, ETH -4.1% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-6.2pp
Live compute02:29 PM

Polymarket Price

40%YES
60%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

44% / 48%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

41%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-10.2pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13?" at 40% YES / 60% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1891910

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-7.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Apr 12, 2026

Current

44% YES (-5.0pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 40%99%
Buy YES@ 40¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 60¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this