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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 15?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 15?

Closes April 15, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
84%FIS
+1ppvs market 84%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.8pp above current market price; market at 84% may be underpriced with macro signals showing ETH +0.7% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroETH +0.7% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑
+0.8pp
Live compute10:25 AM

Polymarket Price

84%YES
17%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

83% / 85%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

89%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+6.0pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 15?" at 84% YES / 16% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 89%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 84%, NO 16%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919258

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+9.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

75% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Peak probability

85% YES — highest in period

Apr 14, 2026

Current

84% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 84%99%
Buy YES@ 84¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.0%
½ Kelly1.5%
Buy NO@ 17¢

-3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this