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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15?

Closes April 15, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
4%FIS
+1ppvs market 3%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +1.0pp above current market price; market at 3% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.0% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.5% ↑, ETH -1.0% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑
+1.0pp
Live compute05:24 PM

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$24K

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

1.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-36.5pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919262

Outcome Markets28 markets

This event has 28 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14: 100%, price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 14: 100%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-5.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Apr 14, 2026

Biggest move: -5.4pp

10% → 5%

Apr 14, 2026

Current

3% YES (-2.6pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%
½ Kelly2.4%
Buy NO+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this