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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 25?
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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 25?

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
98%NO

Volume 24h

$16K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-13.0pp
confidence40%
methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 24?

March

Full event →
above $1,800 on March 24?
100%
above $2,000 on March 24?
100%
between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 24?
100%
above $1,700 on March 25?
100%
above $1,800 on March 25?
100%
above $1,700 on March 27?
99%
above $1,900 on March 25?
99%
above $1,800 on March 27?
98%
above $1,800 on March 29?
98%
above $2,000 on March 25?
96%
above $1,900 on March 27?
94%
above $1,900 on March 29?
93%
above $2,000 on March 27?
83%
above $2,000 on March 29?
78%
above $2,100 on March 25?
59%
above $2,100 on March 27?
55%
above $2,100 on March 29?
55%
above $2,200 on March 29?
30%
above $2,200 on March 27?
25%
above $2,300 on March 29?
13%
above $2,200 on March 25?
10%
above $2,300 on March 27?
9%
above $2,400 on March 29?
5%
above $2,400 on March 27?
2%
above $2,500 on March 29?
2%
above $2,500 on March 27?
2%
above $2,600 on March 29?
1%
above $2,300 on March 25?
1%
above $2,400 on March 25?
0%
above $2,600 on March 27?
0%
above $2,500 on March 25?
0%
above $2,200 on March 24?
0%
above $2,600 on March 25?
0%
above $2,700 on March 25?
0%
above $2,700 on March 24?
0%

35 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢
Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%
½ Kelly6.5%
Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 25?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1640419

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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Event Cluster

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