Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 24?
Closes March 24, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$19K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
24% / 26%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
21%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 24?
March
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
72% YES
Mar 17, 2026
Trough probability
5% YES — lowest in period
Mar 23, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Mar 18, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 19, 2026
Biggest move: +36.5pp
6% → 43%
Mar 23, 2026
Current
33% YES (+7.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 24?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 24?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1628565
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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