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Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?
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Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?

Closes April 12, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 1 signal
52%FIS
6ppvs market 59%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -6.2pp below current market price; market at 58% may be overpriced with macro signals showing BTC -2.2% ↓, ETH -3.5% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC -2.2% ↓, ETH -3.5% ↓, S&P -0.2% ↓
-6.2pp
Live compute11:42 AM

Polymarket Price

59%YES
42%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

58% / 64%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

59%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?" at 59% YES / 41% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 59%, NO 41%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1879419

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,30: 59%, price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,20: 40%, price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,40: 1%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-17.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

71% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Biggest move: -19.0pp

73% → 54%

Apr 12, 2026

Current

54% YES (-19.0pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 59%99%
Buy YES@ 59¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.2%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 42¢

-1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this