Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
8% / 10%
Spread
1.50pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678779
This event has 24 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 61%, May 31, 2026: 37%, US strike 7 countries in 2026?: 32%.
US strike 10 countries in 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
9% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
9% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this