Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$461
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
30% / 32%
Spread
2.20pp
Expert Signal
31%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?" at 33% YES / 67% NO. In the last 24 hours, $461 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 31%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 33%, NO 67%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678776
This event has 23 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 53%, May 31, 2026: 38%, US strike 7 countries in 2026?: 33%.
US strike 7 countries in 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
32% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
33% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this