Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.3pp below current market price; market at 39% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.1% ↓, VIX -4.4% ↓, Gold -0.1% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
37% / 41%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
39%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1974453
This event has 4 active outcome markets. Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in Apr: 39%, Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in: 35%, Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium : 22%.
Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
34% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: +7.5pp
34% → 41%
Apr 14, 2026
Peak probability
44% YES — highest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Current
39% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this