Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?
FM Estimate
33%Market Price
32%This event has 4 active outcome markets. April 14, 2026: 21%, April 18, 2026: 18%, April 21, 2026: 14%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~35%.
Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been br
Price History · 30 days
Export CSVPrice History
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1921097