Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$154K
Liquidity
$118K
Bid / Ask
22% / 23%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
23%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
87% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Trough probability
18% YES — lowest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
41%
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: -32.0pp
64% → 32%
Mar 16, 2026
Current
23% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump visit China by April 30?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $154K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Trump visit China by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/706279
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