Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Closes March 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$29K
Bid / Ask
74% / 75%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
75%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
72% YES
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: +11.0pp
68% → 79%
Mar 17, 2026
Peak probability
80% YES — highest in period
Mar 18, 2026
Current
75% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-2.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump visit China by June 30?" at 75% YES / 25% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 75%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Trump visit China by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 75%, NO 25%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1611577
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