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Markets/Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
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Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Polymarket Price

14%YES
87%NO

Volume 24h

$155K

Liquidity

$60K

Bid / Ask

13% / 14%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

March

Full event →
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
69%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
52%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
43%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
34%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
23%
Iran leadership change by March 31?
14%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
14%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
8%

9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-30.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

44% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

62%

Mar 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

84%

Mar 8, 2026

Biggest move: +61.5pp

22% → 84%

Mar 8, 2026

Peak probability

84% YES — highest in period

Mar 8, 2026

Current

14% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢
Edge

+3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $155K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472010

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

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