ForecastMind

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by…

2026

Consensus Probability

45%
Weak27%
Polymarket18% avg · 17 markets

Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.

Outcome Breakdown

No Change2%
Implied total (sum of outcomes)96%

Contributing Markets

VenueMarketYESVolumeRole
PolymarketWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?53%$32Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?48%$27Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?85%$7Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?16%$7Kstandalone
Polymarket2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31?1%$5Kstandalone
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)11%$752child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)14%$670child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)35%$632child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)7%$612child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)14%$573child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)10%$544child
Polymarket2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?7%$402standalone
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)1%$378child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)2%$378child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)2%$358child
PolymarketWill the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change)2%$358child
Polymarket2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?4%$262standalone
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