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Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Closes November 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$358

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

0.70pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+33.3pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by…

2026

Full event →
Will the Democratic Party control the House a
85%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate
53%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate
48%
below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm
35%
47 or fewer
26%
49
20%
Will the Republican Party control the House a
16%
between 195 and 199 House seats after the 202
14%
between 190 and 194 House seats after the 202
14%
50
13%
48
12%
51
11%
between 205 and 209 House seats after the 202
11%
between 200 and 204 House seats after the 202
10%
52
8%
53
7%
between 210 and 214 House seats after the 202
6%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds un
6%
54
4%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds ov
3%
55
3%
56
2%
57 or more
2%
between 220 and 224 House seats after the 202
2%
between 215 and 219 House seats after the 202
2%
230 or more
1%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds ov
1%
between 225 and 229 House seats after the 202
1%

28 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-31.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly31.0%
½ Kelly15.5%
Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 31.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $358 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/919498

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