Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Closes November 3, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$612
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
7% / 7%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by…
2026
17 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $612 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/919494
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